SourceMegajackpotNew agricultural concept
At present, domestic wheat is in the market cycle, but due to the frenzied auction of reserve wheat and the increasing expectation of high yield of new wheat, the bearish mood of wheat is very strong. As a result, wheat prices have fallen frequently, although there are only sporadic early-maturing wheat on the market in Hubei, but the quotations of many enterprises have fallen.
But unlike the cry of domestic wheat, international wheat is in high spirits and continues to soar, reaching a nine-month high. As we all know, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international wheat has borne the brunt and rushed to a high position. But with the market digesting the news of the conflict and the Fed's frenzied rate hike, global food prices fell, and wheat gradually returned to normal levels.
But why is it so good that it suddenly rises again?
One reason is still geopolitical. Although the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the news level has obviously weakened, the conflict is not over and has been going on. Ukraine, as the granary of Eastern Europe, its wheat output can not be ignored. However, affected by the flames of war, many farmers have no choice but to abandon their seeds. On the other hand, due to cost and price factors, some farmers are starting to give up growing wheat and switch to more profitable crops such as rapeseed. This has also reduced wheat production.
Another important factor is the weather. The weather has been very outstanding in the past two years. For example, the world experienced La Ni ñ a for three consecutive years, and then El Ni ñ o came to an end after La Ni ñ a, and finally came to an end in the middle of this year, but according to global weather forecasts, La Ni ñ a may not meet again. This is suffocating all over the world, especially agriculture, which depends on heaven for a living, will naturally affect the cultivation and growth of food, which in turn will affect the output and export of food. Take several major wheat-producing countries as an example, there are more Rain Water in Europe this year, resulting in excessive soil moisture, which is not conducive to the growth of wheat. France and several other major wheat-producing countries have already had expectations of reducing their yields. The United States and Australia are suffering from drought, and wheat production is expected to be precarious.
The bigger blow came from Russia, the world's top wheat exporter, which had a bumper wheat harvest in the past two years. But not this year. Wheat yield forecasts have also been lowered again and again under the influence of dry weather, and according to the latest forecasts, central Russia, the Volga River region and some southern regions may also encounter the risk of frost in May, which will undoubtedly further depress wheat harvest expectations. Some analysts even predict that this will bring wheat stocks to their lowest level in nearly a decade. As a result, under the superposition of these factors, the international wheat market continues to rise, and Chicago wheat has reached a new high in nearly nine months.
So, with the rise of the international wheat market, can this wave of rise be transmitted to China, so as to improve the decline of domestic wheat?
From the perspective of transmission, the impact is not significant. Because although the international wheat price has risen, the self-sufficiency rate of wheat in China is very high and is little affected by the international market. The rise in wheat prices in the past two years is not simply due to the direct transmission of the international market, but mainly the result of multiple factors such as cost and supply and demand. At least for now, under the expectation of high yield, the supply and demand of domestic wheat is loose, and there is no basis for a sharp rise.
But on the other hand, the situation of domestic wheat production is uncertain. Although wheat prices are falling, wheat is not fully on the market at present, and the market is more emotionally bearish. In terms of policy, there has been no further action since the two "stop filming", so it is a bit early to characterize wheat at this time.
Wheat still needs time, so let the bullet fly for a while.
(personal opinion, for reference only)