Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Weekly review: supply-side shipments fell last week; Australia-Pakistan shipments fell slightlyTheweakestlinkShipments in India continued to increase. The number of port arrivals in China has increased compared with the previous month, and Australian mines have been concentrated in Hong Kong recently. Demand side, all hot metal + 3 for 247 daysTheweakestlink.234 tons to 830000 tonsTheweakestlink. 50,000 tons, the steel mill is still in the process of resuming production, and the growth rate of hot metal is expected to slow down in the later stage; the grade of sinter into the furnace has declined greatly, the profit rate of 247 steel plant has declined, and the snail profit has declined slightly. Iron ore spot transaction data downward, steel mill replenishment slowed down, imported ore available days reduced, there is no power to replenish the warehouse for the time being. On the inventory side, the imported ore inventory of steel mills decreased by 2.03 million tons compared with the previous month, and the inventory of 45 ports decreased by 840000 tons compared with the previous month. The rainy season in Brazil is coming to an end, Australia's second-quarter shipments are expected to increase, and the supply side will be loose for a long time; hot metal is still in the process of resuming production, and the average daily level of hot metal in May is expected to reach 2.35 million tons. At that time, attention should be paid to hot metal resumption.TheweakestlinkThe height and the resilience of terminal demand; at present, the inventory of the whole industry chain is still high. Short-term fluctuations in point of view.
The monthly difference is temporarily stable from September to January.
Spot iron ore spot trading volume downward, 09 contract basis rate of about 4.5%, basis than the expansion, the basis rate upward.
This week, the Steel Federation announced that the output of 247 samples of hot metal was 2.345 million tons, an increase of 38300 tons compared with the previous month, with an average of 2.326 million tons per month in May.
Inventory 45 Port inventory decreased by 840000 tons, while the proportion of trading mines increased. 15 Hong Kong card powder decreased by 290000 tons, NMPJ increased by 190000 tons, low-grade ore increased by 1.57 million tons, 15 port lump ore decreased by 300000 tons, pellets decreased by 180000 tons, and fine powder decreased by 100000 tons. The total inventory of imported mines in steel mills decreased by 2.03 million tons, factory depots by 940000 tons, and Haipiao + port by 1.09 million tons.
Steel mill profits last week steel mill profit margin downward, iron ore concussion operation, coal coke fell, spot prices of finished materials are weak, profits decline; scrap price difference is temporarily stable. The consumption of imported ore goes up and the consumption of sinter increases. The ratio of lump ore to sintering increases, the ratio of pellets to furnace decreases, and the grade of sintering decreases.
Discount-the average value of the Platts 62 index in May was 117, corresponding to a face value of about 916.
There is a large increase in the difference between varieties, and the premium of mainstream powder is temporarily stable.
Precipitation increases in the port of Tubarang, Brazil
Weather in Brazil: precipitation increases in the port of Tubalang
Rio Tinto Railway derailment
The derailment of Rio Tinto Railway has little impact on supply.
On May 13, 2024, Rio Tinto announced that 22 carriages and three locomotives were affected and there were no casualties after a driverless mining train derailed after a collision with another truck in western Australia. It is assessed that this incident has little impact on the overall shipment of Rio Tinto.
Global shipping downlink
Reuters Shipping: global Shipping Down
Reuters caliber: on May 12, 2024, Reuters global iron ore shipped an average of 4324 kilotons on the 7th, down 3.8% from the previous week and up 12% from the same period last year. Australia's 7-day mobile average shipments were 2435 kilotons, down 8.8 percent from the previous week, an increase of 5.7 percent over the same period last year; Brazil's 7-day mobile average shipments were 970 kilotons, an increase of 2.9 percent from the previous week and 8.7 percent from the same period last year.
Reuters shipments: uplink in non-mainstream areas, continued growth in India
Reuters shipments: FMG shipments remain high
Reuters arrival: recent upstream arrivals and concentrated arrival of Australian mines
Steel couplet shipping: Australia-Pakistan shipping volume dropped slightly last week
Steel couplet delivery: last week, the mainstream mine shipment was temporarily stable.
Steel couplet shipments: shipments in the Australian port of Dampier fell sharply last week.
Steel couplet shipments: precipitation increased in Brazil last week, while shipments in the port of Cape Madrid rebounded.
Steel couplet arrival: last week, 45 ports decreased by 2.35 million tons, while northern ports increased by 220000 tons.
Domestic mine: 126 mine average daily output decreased compared with the previous month.
The steel mill is in the process of resuming production.
Steel mills: the profitability of steel mills is down; hot metal is 2.345 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 38300 tons
Steel mills: iron ore concussion operation, coal coke drop, spot price of finished wood is weak, profit decline; scrap iron price difference is temporarily stable
Steel mills: upstream consumption of imported ore and sinter consumption
Steel mill: the ratio of lump ore to sintering increases, the ratio of pellet to furnace decreases, and the grade of sintering decreases.
Dredging port: last week, the average daily dredging capacity of port 45 was 3.03 million tons, an increase of 20, 000 tons / day over the previous week
Deal: iron ore spot turnover declines
Demand: the output of the five major varieties rebounded slowly, and the demand for hot coil increased.
There is an inflection point in port inventory
Port: inventory at port 45 decreased by 840000 tons, while the proportion of trading mines increased.
Steel mills: the total inventory of imported mines in steel mills is reduced by 2.03 million tons, factory depot by 940000 tons, Haipiao + port by 1.09 million tons, and the useful life of imported mines is reduced by 2 to 20 days.
The period is fluctuating, and the basis is expanding.
The monthly difference is temporarily stable
Week: price data
Base difference: current concussion, spread, temporary stability of monthly difference
Monthly difference: September-January difference is temporarily stable
Price structure: monthly difference maintains BACK structure, and discount increases.
Price difference: there is a big increase in Mike powder.
Premium: the premium of mainstream fines is temporarily stable.
Freight: sea freight goes down slightly
Sea drift cost: the cost of main stream powder is temporarily stable.
Import profit: import profit of Australian mainstream powder rose slightly
In May, the average value of the Platts 62 index was 117, and the corresponding disk valuation was about 916.
Balance sheet