Financial Union, May 21 (Editor Ma Lan) MondayTiger'sRichesThe wheat market reflects the severe situation of Russia's harvest. Russian wheat export prices rose from US$223 -227 per ton to US$236 -240, while Paris wheat futures prices reached 7.7 per bushel.Tiger'sRiches.5-7Tiger'sRiches.6 dollars.
Global commodities analyst Mike Zuzulo said that during Monday's trading, European markets realized that Ukraine and Russia may have more serious problems than previously feared, and some major growing provinces in the Black Sea suffered.Tiger'sRichesMore than a day of freezing damage caused wheat yield to drop significantly.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has also confirmed the problem in wheat supply. It estimates that the area currently needs to be replanted in the country will reach 900,000 hectares, accounting for about 1% of the total crop area. However, more than a dozen regions in Russia are still in a state of emergency caused by frost.
Agricultural consulting firm Sovecon pointed out that temperatures in all regions of Russia are expected to remain below normal, but no more frosts will occur. For farmers who want to replant, the problem is a lack of moisture in the topsoil.
Zuzulo also warned that the correlation between commodities also confirmed the risk of wheat prices. Copper, silver and gold prices have all reached new heights, while the correlation between copper and soft red winter wheat prices is as high as about 90%, which means investors may be flocking to buy spot and futures wheat, further driving up prices.
American Opportunity
As European wheat markets begin to turmoil, American farmers are mulling new plans. Timely rainfall and snowfall provide an excellent growing environment for wheat grown in Kansas, USA, meaning that the largest wheat producer in the United States is likely to have a bumper harvest.
Last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture crop inspectors scattered across Kansas to measure data and estimated that during the earliest harvest season in June, the state's wheat is expected to reach its highest level in three years, or 290.4 million bushels, which is 8.4% higher than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest forecast.
But with harvest still more than a month away, unpredictable weather may still dampen this optimistic outlook. Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council and leader of the crop inspection team, said only further rainfall can ensure a good harvest.
However, this has already made American farmers gear up. The United States, once the world's largest wheat exporter, has slipped to fourth place. But this year's cut in Russian wheat production has given the United States the possibility of regaining market share.
StoneX grain analyst Mike O'Dea said the United States will find some additional demand for wheat. The United States has previously been unable to compete with cheaper Russian wheat, but Brazil has recently purchased some bulk U.S. wheat. The Mexican market, which is increasingly dependent on Russia, may also change.
O'Dea pointed out that if U.S. wheat can drive Russian wheat out of the Mexican market, U.S. wheat exports will be further expanded.