bingo sites with bonus

SourceBoxingpunchmachineChina Investment Anxin Futures Research Institute

After a round of continuous decline in domestic and foreign cotton pricesBoxingpunchmachineContinue to pay attention to the demand performance after May Day, but in the short term, it is still cautious to rebound, especially Zheng Mian. Relatively speaking, the rebound basis of American Cotton is better than that of Zheng Mian. In the medium and long term, the global cotton price is still not optimistic. The main logic is that the potential for global production increase in 25 years may be larger, while the demand may continue to be stable.

Domestic spot prices are stronger than Zheng cotton, the recent basis has strengthened, there is still a certain price sentiment upstream; demand after May Day has entered the off-season, downstream there is a slow reduction in start-up risk, cotton yarn inventory slowly increased, because cotton yarn as a whole is higher than last year, and the processing continues to lose money, the function of the downstream reservoir has been greatly weakened. For Zhengmian Zheng Mian to maintain 9-1 positive set of ideas, bargain rolling operation.

In the process of decline, American cotton has fallen even more in recent months, resulting in a decline in the 7-12 price gap from the high level, which is basically flat at present. If the long-term supply increase is expected to be gradually verified, the probability of a positive set of American cotton 7-12 price difference is higher.

Planting in Xinjiang is relatively smooth, and there are no major weather problems for the time being, so there may not be a continued reduction in production in Xinjiang in the new year. After mid-May, the temperature in Xinjiang will be more stable, even if there is a cooling situation, the minimum temperature will not be very low, and the probability of weather speculation during the planting period will gradually decrease.

First, the short-term decline of American cotton may slow down, and there is great potential for supply increase in the new year.

American cotton has fallen sharply since the beginning of April. American cotton has fallen by a deeper extent than the market expected. It was generally believed that the tight inventory of 23 prime 24, the high net excess position of funds, and the very low number of American cotton warehouse receipts would support American cotton to fluctuate in the high position, but did not expect that the market acceptance of high-priced American cotton was average, the weekly signing data of American cotton was weak, and the net excess position of fund quickly fell back from the high position. The number of American cotton warehouse receipts has increased rapidly in a short period of time. In the new year, Brazil has a high yield, American cotton production has resumed, and Australian production is at a high level; looking forward to the medium and long term, the overall performance of global cotton consumption is stable, and it is difficult to have a substantial increase, so the global cotton may face the pressure of increased supply in the year 24-25. The weather and production situation need us to continue to track, and the global cotton price is not optimistic in the medium to long term.

After a continuous decline in American cotton, the short-term decline may slow down, the near and far price gap of American cotton has narrowed significantly in the process of decline, and the pressure of supply is mainly reflected in the distant month, American cotton follow-up or the same set of logic.

Brazil's National Commodity supply Company (CONAB) released a report in April that increased Brazil's annual production of 23x24 by 3%.Boxingpunchmachine.90,000 to 3.6 million tons, with production of 3.17 million tons in 22prime 23, with Brazil continuing to increase production. The United States has encountered extreme weather in the past two years in a row, and the abandonment rate is at an all-time high. So far this year, the weather is generally satisfactory, and the planting progress is normal. The output of the year 24 may recover by about 50-1 million tons.

Figure 1. American cotton warehouse receipt quantity unit: package

Figure 2. American cotton production unit: ten thousand tons

Figure 3. American cotton 2407-2412 price difference unit: cents / pound

Second, domestic cotton spot is stronger than futures, and the basis is stronger.

Recently, Zheng cotton has fallen continuously, the spot price is relatively strong, and the spot supply is relatively sufficient, but the spot price willingness is strong, and some large groups still hesitate to sell. The progress of cotton sales in 23 and 24 years is slow, as of April 25, the national sales rate is 67.Boxingpunchmachine.5%, down 12.2% from the same period last year, 5.6% lower than the average over the past four years; profits of textile enterprises in Xinjiang are still better than those in the mainland, and the market is still worried about whether inventories in Xinjiang are too tight in the future.

In terms of planting in the new year, the planting in Xinjiang is relatively smooth this year, and the weather is generally preferred. At present, the planting is basically coming to an end. Last year, Xinjiang continued to encounter extreme weather during the planting period, which led to many replanting in some areas. Around August last year, Xinjiang encountered continuous high temperature weather for about a month. Up to now, the weather is better than that of last year, although the planting area is likely to continue to decrease slightly, it is expected that the per unit yield will recover, so the yield in Xinjiang will not necessarily be reduced in 25th year. Therefore, for the domestic supply and demand situation in 25th year or follow the global trend, it may be relaxed gradually in the long term. The spot spread has risen recently, and the spot is still stronger than the futures performance. the price spread of 2409-2501 is basically maintained within 0200. in the short term, the upper space is relatively limited, but the price falls to 0100. it is safer to stop earnings around 200. wait for the fall back and intervene again to carry out rolling operations. if the long-term supply increment is gradually confirmed, the upper space may be able to open.

Figure 4. Zheng Mian 9-1 price difference

Data source: wind Investment Anxin Futures arrangement

Chart 5. Domestic cotton sales progress unit:%

Data source: China Cotton net China Investment Anxin Futures arrangement

Figure 6. Zheng Mian's main force basis trend unit: yuan / ton