Stock index:
Yesterday, the A-share market generally rose, and Wind all-A rose 1.Arkanoidgame.24%, with a turnover of 900 billion yuan. In the corresponding index of stock index futures, the small-cap index rose even more, with CSI 1000 up 1.63%, CSI 500 up 1.8%, CSI 300 up 0.95% and Shanghai 50 up 0.63%. Today, there is news that real estate purchase restrictions have been relaxed in some cities, and the market is evolving in the direction of optimistic expectations. Before the festival, the Politburo meeting announced that the third Plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee would be held in July this year, and the market had high expectations for the third Plenary session. Medium-and long-term solutions to many topics of market concern, including real estate and debt reduction, are expected to be discussed at the meeting, which is more important for raising the medium-and long-term valuation center of the A-share market. Combined with the fact that the central bank said that buying treasury bonds in the secondary market is one of the monetary policy options, market expectations for medium-and long-term inflation have risen. With the recent strong performance of China's equity assets under the policy support, we believe that this optimism will continue to be transmitted. In terms of basis difference, IM2405 basis difference-9.83 Magi IC 2405 basis difference-8.17 Magi IF2405 basis difference-0.96 Magi IH2405 basis difference 4.07.
National debt:
Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with 30-year main contracts down 0.56%. 10-year main contracts fell 0.21%. 5-year main contracts fell 0.12%. 2-year main contracts fell 0.02%. In terms of the open market, the central bank carried out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%, the same as before. As there was no reverse repurchase due, the central bank made a net investment of 2 billion yuan that day. Most of the interbank pledge repo rates fell. 1-day varieties reported 1.7234%, down 11.55 basis points, while 7-day varieties reported 1.8249%, down 4.57 basis points. After a recent rapid correction, the yield on 30-year treasury bonds has returned to 2.55%, but the current ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have not yet landed, and the supply pressure has not yet appeared. Once 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are issued in the second quarter, 30-year treasury bond futures still have room to continue to decline. On the premise that the capital side is expected to be stable, the short-end 2-year treasury bond futures continue to adjust the pressure is limited. At present, under the circumstances of stable capital, weak economic repair and strong landing expectations of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, short-term treasury bond futures will still be strong in the short end relative to the long end.
Precious metals:
Overnight outer disk gold rose 1.63%, spot silver rose 3.72%. Last night's U.S. Treasury auction.ArkanoidgameWith a total of $25 billion in 30-year Treasuries, the overall auction result was strong, and the two medium-and long-term bond auctions in the United States performed well, indicating that the market is still liquid. In addition, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time reached 231000 in the week of May 4, the highest since August 26, 2023, exceeding expectations of 212000 and the previous figure of 209000. The slowdown in employment also brought new hope for interest rate cuts. Geographically, Israeli sources say that the negotiations between Kazakhstan and Israel may break down and the Middle East may fall into tension again. Affected by many aspects, gold changed its decline and rose again. Although gold has been adjusted recently, the range is relatively limited, and the sensitivity to bullish factors again indicates that gold is still in a long market and should not be aggressively chased short and operated cautiously.