Newsletter summary
Pig prices rose slightly in the first two weeks of May, supply pressure may fall in the fourth quarter, and forward prices are optimistic. The number of piglets born is lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply is abundant. Pig prices are expected to rise in 2024 compared with the same period last year, and 11 contracts can be arranged with multiple opportunities.
Text of news flash
[pig price trend forecast: supply pressure is declining, long-term price expectations are optimistic]
In the first two weeks of May, the spot pig market showed a relatively stable and slightly upward trend, especially in the rebound in the market. The festival effect and the decline in the number of hurdles at the breeding end are jointly promoted by other factors.ThorslotpragmaticThe price rebounded slightly, and the national average price was close to 15 yuan / kg. However, as the temperature rises, consumer performance is weak, the demand for fat pigs decreases, the market weight gain decreases, and the average weight-to-week ratio continues to decline. Although the willingness to supplement the fence at the second breeding and breeding end is low, and the price of piglets continues to show a weak trend, the profit at the breeding end is still considerable, with the profit of self-breeding approaching 100 yuan per head and the profit of purchased piglets exceeding 200 yuan per head.
With the passage of time, the effect of pre-production capacity removal of pigs is expected to appear gradually. The recovery expectations on the demand side, coupled with the expected decline in supply pressure in the fourth quarter and the arrival of the peak demand season, make the forward price trend relatively optimistic. Recently, the prices of corn and soybean meal on the feed side are strong, and the cost side supports a rebound in pig prices. In terms of piglet birth, piglets became regular in March, which was lower than that of the same period last year, but much higher than that of the same period in 2022.ThorslotpragmaticThe high expectation of the contract pig price in recent months.
In terms of operational strategy, if Eryu actively enters the market in May, investors can pay attention to the high layout 07 contract empty single opportunity. If Eryu is in a general mood, it is not recommended to short the 07 contract. For the pig market in 2024, the overall price center of gravity is expected to move higher than the same period last year, and investors can continue to pay attention to the layout of the 11 contract callback phase. In addition, investors are advised to cooperate with Eryu's entry rhythm and seasonal consumption off-peak season to carry out anti-hedging operations in order to seize market opportunities.
