Our reporter Liu Qi and Han Yu
It's May 24thOnlinefishshootinggamerealmoneynodepositThe 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds ushered in their debut, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan in competitive bidding. The current treasury bonds will be distributed from May 27 to May 29, and will be listed for trading on May 29. According to the arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds announced by the Ministry of Finance, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued once a month for a total of seven times from May to November.
It is worth mentioning that on May 22, the first issue of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (30 years) issued this year was officially listed on the secondary market. This period of treasury bonds continued the hot situation of subscription in the primary market, and was active in the first day of bidding in the secondary market, which also attracted the attention of the industry. So what is the impact of the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds scheduled to be issued this year on the capital side, the bond market and the equity market? A reporter from the Securities Daily interviewed a number of experts in the industry in this regard.
Limited impact on the financial side
It is reported that this year's ultra-long-term special treasury bonds include 20-year, 30-year and 50-year maturity, all of which pay interest on a semi-annual basis. The 20-year issue is from May to November, with 2 initial issues and 5 renewals; the 30-year period is also issued from May to November, with 3 initial issues and 9 renewals; and the 50-year period is issued from June to October, with 1 initial issue and 2 renewals. Prior to this, on May 17, 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds had completed their debut. May 24 is the first tender for the issuance of 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the 50-year super-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued as early as June 14.
In the view of analysts, the impact of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on the financial side is limited. Ming Ming, chief economist of Citic Securities, told the Securities Daily that the issuance cycle of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is long, the pace of issuance is slow, and the scale of the single issue will not be too large, which will help to reduce the impact on the capital side and smooth the fluctuation of market interest rates.
According to the data, the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds launched on May 17 were listed on the secondary market on May 22. Data from China Monetary Network showed that on the same day, DR007 (7-day repurchase weighted average interest rate of deposit institutions in the interbank market) was reported as 1.Onlinefishshootinggamerealmoneynodeposit.8421%, kept running near the current short-term policy interest rate, without significant fluctuations.
From the perspective of the impact of the bond market, Feng Lin, director of the Research and Development Department of Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily that since the beginning of this year, the supply of government bonds has been slow and the demand for institutional debt allocation is strong, which has deepened the "asset shortage" situation in the bond market. The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds can increase the supply of safe assets, make the supply and demand of the bond market more balanced, and the situation of "asset shortage" may be alleviated.
"this year, the issuance cycle of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is relatively long and the pace is relatively slow, which smoothes the supply pressure that may be caused by its issuance to the bond market. In addition, the market has long expected the supply pressure that may be caused by ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, so the incremental negative impact on the bond market caused by subsequent issuance will be relatively limited. " Feng Lin further said.
In the view of Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Caixin Research Institute, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds also helps to promote interest rate market-oriented financial reform.
Wu Chaoming analyzed that the issue of 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will help to improveOnlinefishshootinggamerealmoneynodepositChina's interest rate curve provides a pricing reference for ultra-long local bonds. At the same time, its issuance provides long-term safe assets for the market, which helps to alleviate the problem of "asset shortage" and promotes the overall operation of long-term treasury bond yields within a reasonable range that matches the expectations of long-term economic growth; in addition, the increase in the supply of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may push up long-term interest rates, but the increase in demand may offset some of this effect.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that he plans to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years this year, sending out a signal that a proactive fiscal policy will better support economic development. it will help ease the pressure on local finance and debt, support the momentum of infrastructure growth, and promote the sustained return of economic growth to the potential level. The formation of major projects also helps to reduce the cost of economic and social operation, improve the efficiency of economic operation and optimize the supply structure.
There is still room for cutting reserve requirements and interest rates.
On May 13, the State Council held a video conference to support the deployment and mobilization of "dual" construction, pointing out that "issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, do a good job in supporting the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity-building in key areas, and provide strong support for the promotion of Chinese-style modernization." it is necessary to make good use of conventional and unconventional policies and strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary and financial instruments. Guide more financial resources into the real economy. The industry expects that monetary policy will also be supported during the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.
"at present, taking into account the debt pressure of banks and the economic repair situation, there is still room for reserve requirement and interest rate cuts during the year, but the specific timing still needs to be judged comprehensively in the light of factors such as the domestic monetary and credit environment and the monetary policy pace of overseas economies." Clearly said.
Wu Chaoming also believes that there is still room for cutting reserve requirements and interest rates, and it is expected to go first.
"the probability of reserve reduction in the second quarter is on the high side. On the one hand, it is in line with the fiscal policy in the second and third quarters to release long-term low-cost funds to banks; on the other hand, the central bank has repeatedly released the signal that there is still room for reserve requirement cuts since the beginning of the year. " Wu Chaoming said that the need to cut interest rates is still strong, but the timing is expected to be delayed.
Wu Chaoming further analyzed that, first, the yield of domestic 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds fell rapidly in the early period, and is currently at a low level, which is conducive to the low-cost issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and it is not necessary for the central bank to cut interest rates in the short term. Second, the internal equilibrium target tends to ease, the momentum of economic growth has stabilized, the overall level of inflation is expected to pick up moderately, and the level of real interest rates is reduced. Third, the external equilibrium target constraints are strengthened, mainly due to the substantial delay of the Federal Reserve interest rate reduction time point and the substantial reduction of interest rate reduction, which objectively disturbs and restricts the domestic interest rate policy.
Wen Bin believes that the short-term impact of the decentralized issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on liquidity will be much lower than expected, so the probability of the central bank to cut the reserve will also be reduced, or more through the MLF (medium-term lending convenience) sequel and OMO (open market operations) net investment to calm the volatility of the capital side.
In fact, on May 15, the central bank renewed the MLF that expired this month with equal parity, ending the contraction continuation pattern of the previous two months.
"Considering the central bank's current high concern about idle funds and long-end government bonds interest rates, it is unlikely that the RRR will be lowered in the short term only to coordinate with the issuance of special government bonds." Wen Bin said that judging from the estimated net financing amount of government bonds, the liquidity pressure from May to October is acceptable. From November to December, due to the low maturity of government bonds, the liquidity pressure is relatively high, and the central bank may implement a RRR reduction.